Dynamic and causal effects of oil price uncertainty on U.S. energy production: A Fourier and wavelet-based analysis
Resources Policy, cilt.113, 2026 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 113
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105851
- Dergi Adı: Resources Policy
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Compendex, EconLit, Geobase, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Causality analysis, Energy production, Oil price uncertainty, Renewable energy, Wavelet coherence
- Kırklareli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines the dynamic and causal effects of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on different energy production indicators in the United States. FFF-ADF unit root tests, the FTY causality test, and wavelet coherence analysis are employed on monthly data for the period 1990–2024. The findings show that OPU has a unidirectional, significant causal effect on coal production, total fossil fuel production, and total primary energy production. For renewable energy, both positive and negative time-dependent relationships are identified. Wavelet analysis reveals that the link between OPU and energy production varies periodically: price uncertainty encouraging renewable energy investment in some periods but creating volatility in conventional energy output in other periods. These results confirm the role of price uncertainty as a key determinant of energy market dynamics, consistent with the international literature. The study highlights that increasing the diversity of the energy portfolio, supporting investment in renewables, and developing flexible policy instruments are critical to the security and sustainability of the energy supply. Overall, the findings provide an updated and policy-relevant perspective that contributes to ongoing debates in energy economics and resource policy.