Growth engine or fiscal burden? Strategic autonomy and the asymmetric macroeconomic impacts of military expenditure in Turkey and Greece
Defence and Peace Economics, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1080/10242694.2026.2729332
- Dergi Adı: Defence and Peace Economics
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aerospace Database, EconLit, Index Islamicus, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index, Political Science Abstract (IPSA), Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Economic growth, Greece, military expenditure, strategic autonomy, Turkey, H56, O47, O33, C32, F52
- Kırklareli Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The long-term relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece (1951-2023) is investigated within the Strategic Autonomy Theory framework. Addressing structural asymmetries between geopolitical rivals, the analysis utilizes SIPRI and Penn World Table data through a methodology accounting for slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional independence. Following Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) tests, an asymmetric modelling strategy is pursued by employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both countries, allowing for a simultaneous analysis of long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamic adjustments tailored to country-specific structural characteristics. Empirical results reveal a stark divergence. For Turkey, defence spending provides a strong short-term demand stimulus (+4.232) with robust predictive linkages running from defence to economic growth; defence spending shocks explain 9.23% of growth variance. Conversely, although Greece exhibits a similar unidirectional causality from defence to economic growth, it displays a ‘resource competition’ dynamic and negative sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, such as the 1974 crisis (−0.145). Findings indicate that Turkey’s shift toward domestic defence industrialization internalized shocks without compromising growth, while Greece remained vulnerable to defence-induced budget constraints. Strategic autonomy and domestic production capacity serve as critical structural buffers that mitigate the long-term economic burden of defence spending.